Published commentary on market regimes, structural positioning, and the cycles that move capital. Every note is timestamped, sourced, and written for readers who do their own work.
Three companies missed on free cash flow in the same week the buildout's suppliers booked record orders. The COVID hiring frenzy is repeating with GPUs instead of engineers, except this mistake is made of concrete, leases, and hidden debt.
I am afraid of losing my job to AI. When I sit with that fear long enough, a second one shows up underneath it, and it is worse: what do I do after? A personal essay on growing more than one arm while the choice is still mine.
My dentist says it is all going to be alright, usually right before the part that hurts. Lately I have been hearing that same voice from the people who set interest rates.
SpaceX just rang the largest IPO bell in American history. The folk wisdom says record IPOs mark tops. The actual record says it is more conditional than that, and the conditions are what matter.
Confidence does not arrive at market tops by accident. The pattern that most investors only recognize after it has cost them. A research note on structural positioning.